Sure, in the space of 100 ways for the next few years in AI to unfold, it is their opinion of one of the 100 most likely, to paint a picture for the general population about what approximately is unfolding. The future will not go exactly as that. But their predictive power is better than almost anyone else. Scott has been talking about these things for a decade, before everyone on this forum thought of OpenAI as a complete joke.
Do you have any precedent from yourself or anyone else about correctly predicting the present from 2021? If not, maybe Scott and Daniel just might have a better world model than you or your preferred sources.
It's in the same vein as Daniel Kokotajlo's 2021 (pre ChatGPT) predictions that were largely correct: https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-...
Do you have any precedent from yourself or anyone else about correctly predicting the present from 2021? If not, maybe Scott and Daniel just might have a better world model than you or your preferred sources.